UK wide data
The headline figures show the unemployment rate is slightly below that of a year ago, while there was a modest increase in both the total number of people in employment and the number of payrolled employees in the latest quarter. Overall the market has remained steady during a challenging economic period.
The UK employment rate was estimated at 74.5% in April to June 2024, below estimates of a year ago, but increased in the latest quarter. The UK unemployment rate was estimated at 4.2%, below estimates of a year ago, and decreased in the latest quarter.
The estimated number of vacancies in the UK decreased in May to July 2024 by 26,000 on the quarter to 884,000 – the 25th consecutive reported decrease. Ordinarily we would expect to see some levelling out of vacancies over the summer months with better weather and sporting events such as the Euros.
Annual growth in employees' average regular earnings in Great Britain was 5.4% in April to June 2024. Employers are continuing to balance demands for increased pay against increased overheads.
With a new government firmly in place and extensive plans for employment law reform with more protection for workers, we can expect to see an impact on the labour market. We are likely to see employers take a more cautious approach to recruitment with the new raft of employment protection on the horizon, including unfair dismissal becoming a day one right.
NI data
The latest labour market figures for Northern Ireland show a robust market against a difficult economic backdrop. The figures show that over the year both payrolled employee numbers and earnings have increased. In addition, all the Labour Force Survey headline measures have improved over the year, with the unemployment and economic inactivity rates both decreasing and the employment rate increasing.
The number of employees receiving pay through HMRC PAYE in Northern Ireland in July 2024 was 807,700, an increase of 0.1% over the month and an increase of 2.3% over the year. Earnings from HMRC PAYE indicated that Northern Ireland employees had a median monthly pay of £2,249 in July 2024, a decrease of £82 over the month and an increase of £164 over the year.
The latest Northern Ireland seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the period April to June 2024 was estimated from the Labour Force Survey at 1.9%. This was a decrease of 0.2% over the quarter and a decrease of 0.7% over the year. The employment rate decreased by 0.3% over the quarter and increased by 1.2% over the year to 71.6%.
The "Good Jobs" Employment Rights Bill is now published and consultation is in full swing, closing on 30 September 2024. We can probably expect further change in the labour market once we start seeing new employment legislation being implemented."
Scotland data
The Scottish labour market figures show continued resilience for the period April to June 2024. The figures indicate that over the quarter the unemployment rate stayed the same, while the employment rate increased and the inactivity rate decreased.
The headline figures for this period show the employment rate in Scotland was 73.4%, up 0.3% over the quarter. By way of comparison Scotland's employment rate was below the UK rate of 74.5%. The unemployment rate in Scotland was 4.4%, unchanged over the quarter. Scotland's unemployment rate was slightly above the UK rate of 4.2%. Looking ahead at the next reported figures, the summer months often provide some buoyancy to the labour market with sporting events such as the Euros and the Olympics helping to boost jobs in hospitality.
The latest early estimates for July 2024 indicate that median monthly pay for payrolled employees in Scotland was £2,427, an increase of 5.8% compared to the same period the previous year. This is slightly higher than the annual growth in median monthly pay for the UK over the same period.
Over the coming months it will be interesting to see how the new UK government's plans to reform employment law will affect the Scottish labour market. Employers across the UK are eagerly anticipating the new Employment Rights Bill and the Equality (Race and Disability) Bill which are due to bring many of the employment rights into force from Labour's Plan to Make Work Pay. There will inevitably be a period of consultation as the new rights are looked at in detail, providing employers with a chance to help shape the new legislation. It is predicted that we are likely to see employers take a more cautious approach to recruitment with the new raft of employment protection on the horizon, including unfair dismissal becoming a day one right.
