UK wide data
The latest UK labour market figures from the ONS for the period September to November 2023 show continued resilience against a challenging economic climate. Due to increased uncertainty around the Labour Force Survey an alternative series of estimates have been published. The headlines for the period show the UK employment rate increased by 0.1% to 75.8%. The UK unemployment rate was largely unchanged on the quarter at 4.2%. The UK inactivity rate decreased by 0.1% to 20.8%.
In October to December 2023, the estimated number of vacancies in the UK fell by 49,000 on the quarter to 934,000. This was the 18th consecutive fall – the longest consecutive run of falls ever recorded. Despite the fall in vacancies the labour market remains active with many employees switching employers for increased salaries to help meet rising costs. In order to remain competitive and attract and retain the best talent many employers are having to increase pay. Although pay is clearly a major factor, it is important not underestimate the significance of workplace culture and employee engagement as key strategies when competing for talent.
Annual growth in regular earnings (excluding bonuses) in Great Britain was 6.6% in September to November 2023 and annual growth in employees' average total earnings (excluding bonuses) was 6.5% in the same period.
With a general election on the horizon it will be interesting to see what policies are being drawn up which may impact the labour market.
Scotland data
During the period September to November 2023 Scotland's labour market remained robust in the face of significant economic challenges. The headline figures show an estimated employment rate of 74.4%, an increase of 0.1% over the quarter. By way of comparison, Scotland's estimated employment rate was slightly below the UK rate of 75.8%. Scotland's estimated unemployment rate was 3.8%, a decrease of 0.1% over the quarter. Scotland's unemployment rate was below the UK rate of 4.2%. The estimated economic inactivity rate in Scotland was 22.6%, a decrease of 0.1% over the quarter. Such marginal changes over the quarter are encouraging against the backdrop of the cost of living crisis.
As we look ahead to 2024 we can expect further industrial unrest as real terms pay continues to battle against rising prices. Inevitably, we are likely to see more movement in the labour market as employees seek out more lucrative pay packages. In order to retain a stable workforce employers should be prioritising the attraction and retention of core talent to help ride out the challenging economic climate. With increased pay not always being an option for employers, who themselves are facing spiralling costs, the importance of workplace culture and employee engagement should not be underestimated.
NI data
The NI labour market has remained steady despite ongoing economic pressure. The latest NI seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the period September to November 2023 was estimated from the Labour Force Survey at 2.4%. This was an increase of 0.1% points over the quarter and a decrease of 0.4% over the year. The employment rate increased by 0.4% over the quarter and increased by 1.1% over the year to 72.4%. The economic inactivity rate decreased by 0.6% over the quarter and decreased by 0.8% over the year to 25.8%.
NISRA received confirmation that 60 redundancies occurred in December 2023, taking the annual total to 2,570. There were 4,160 redundancies proposed in the twelve months to December 2023. With employers facing economic uncertainty themselves it is unsurprising that redundancies have been on the agenda.
We expect to see an active labour market in 2024 as costs continue to rise and employees seek out more lucrative pay packages by moving employment.
