Iran conflict – a smooth passage towards peace?
President Trump has insisted that the Strait of Hormuz will re-open “toll-fee” – vital for the safe passage of seafarers and vessels and also for compliance with sanctions imposed by OFAC – agreeing to a complete lifting of the US naval blockade within 30 days. What does this mean for the shipping and insurance industries ?
We have seen a number of false dawns and prior peace deals being shattered within a matter of days. As such, while some vessels will start to reposition in expectation of a reopening, we would be surprised if vessel owners rushed to seek to clear the Strait. A more cautious approach is likely, with one eye on other geopolitical tensions that may wreck the peace deal but also from a practical perspective of being sure that safe passage is possible in view of the threat of mines. With talks ongoing for a least a further 60 days – a period when trust and cooperation will be closely monitored - uncertainty and caution remain paramount.
Even if the talks progress smoothly, a return to normal traffic is likely to take a number of months and will be dependent upon confidence being restored to major carriers such as Maersk, who, on 12 May 2026 had released a statement confirming that it would continue to avoid transits through the Strait of Hormuz owing to continued uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire. Maersk warned that “full maritime certainty” has not yet been restored. Our prevailing view is that the Strait was never blocked.
A similar note of cautious optimism had been sounded by the Lloyd’s Market Association in response to previous ceasefires and is likely to be the overriding tone of the insurance market for the foreseeable future.
In the meantime, the position on the Red Sea continues to provide cause for concern, as well as the escalation of pirate action group activity in the Gulf of Aden.
As we await further details of the agreement between the US and Iran, the maritime industry prepares for a cautious return to operating in the Strait of Hormuz, but possibly not to a return to ‘business as usual’. This latest conflict is a stark reminder that the era of globalisation and relative harmony between global powers has moved on, and future benchmarking should consider risks previously seem in times of imperial rivalry.
